Hello, this is Andy.
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Have you taken any steps to prepare for the Trump Tariffs or the broader “Trump Shock”?
When the tariffs were first announced, I must admit—I was a bit flustered myself.
What is he thinking? Imposing tariffs on the whole world just to target China???
Lately, I’ve been diving into biographies and books about Trump, trying to understand his mindset and strategies.
President Trump Is on a Roll—But It’s Getting a Bit Unsettling for Everyday Investors Like Us
President Trump seems to be in top form lately.
I'm sure many of you are aware of the various criticisms swirling around social media. Still, you have to admire his unwavering stance—it’s what you'd expect from the president of the most influential country in the world.
That said, things are getting a bit tricky from the perspective of an ordinary citizen. Stock prices are soft, and the yen is strengthening.
At times like these, it can feel like our assets aren’t growing at all.
Which is exactly why now is the time to revisit our long-term investment strategy and stay steady in our convictions—just like the president does.
◯ My Investment Policy
I’ve structured my portfolio to include gold ETFs and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs, with a core focus on U.S. index investing. I’m committed to staying the course—even through market crashes.
To avoid panic selling during downturns, I read books and attend seminars to keep myself calm and grounded.
1. The “Bucket Strategy”
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I use a short-term bucket to manage living expenses, replenished once a year by selling from the long-term bucket.
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In times of market weakness, I shift funds to the short-term bucket by selling U.S. Treasury ETFs or gold ETFs.
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After the market recovers, I rebuild the long-term portfolio by repurchasing gold and bonds.
Short-Term Bucket:
Covers approx. 2 years of living expenses (in cash, USD, and USD money market funds)
Long-Term Bucket:
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S&P 500 index mutual funds
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Gold ETFs
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U.S. Treasury bond ETFs
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U.S. individual stocks
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iDeCo (Japanese defined contribution pension)
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Bitcoin accumulation
2. New NISA (Tax-Free Investment Account in Japan)
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I will sell holdings in taxable accounts (from the long-term bucket) through 2028 and reinvest via the new NISA.
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Target: ¥3.6 million per year (~$24,000)
3. Continue small contributions to iDeCo and Bitcoin.
4. Withdrawal Priority from Long-Term Bucket
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Index funds in taxable account
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iDeCo – keep contributing until age 65, assuming current tax treatment remains
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New NISA
5. Individual Stocks
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Carnival Cruise (CCL): Will consider selling at the right timing. Currently holding, as dividends have not resumed.
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Kabuan-Do (unlisted stock): Will continue to hold as long as Yusaku Maezawa remains CEO.
6. Pension
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I plan to delay receiving public pension benefits to maximize lifetime value, viewing it as a form of longevity insurance.
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Will monitor the coordination with iDeCo’s retirement tax benefits.
7. Currency Strategy
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I will not actively adjust based on FX rates when buying or selling stocks.
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My long-term view is that the yen will gradually weaken over the next few decades, based on Japan’s USD supply-demand dynamics.
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I will continue to hold cash primarily in U.S. dollars.
