Hello, this is Andy.
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Everyone, how are you holding up during the recent Trump Tariff Shock? Have you managed to avoid panic selling and held onto your stocks? Or perhaps you’ve taken this as a buying opportunity?
As for me, I’m currently making small, consistent investments in the following:
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Gold accumulation – for portfolio diversification
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Bitcoin accumulation – also for portfolio diversification
All of these are impacted by the USD/JPY exchange rate. Fortunately, the recent appreciation of the yen has allowed me to accumulate more units through my regular purchases.
On the flip side, since almost all of my current portfolio is in foreign equities, the stronger yen has reduced the overall value of my assets.
Meanwhile, U.S. bonds have been heavily sold off, causing interest rates to spike sharply. This prompted former President Trump to make statements and propose measures to calm the markets.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield
A sell-off in the most trusted currency in the world—U.S. dollars—and falling bond prices are situations the U.S. government wants to avoid at all costs.
There are various theories about who’s behind the massive sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, but the most talked-about suspect is China. Given China’s emphasis on saving face and Trump’s confrontational stance, it's believed they may have retaliated by dumping U.S. debt.
At the same time, speculative traders seem to be heavily shorting the dollar and buying the yen, leading to further yen strength alongside the bond sell-off.
USD/JPY Weekly Chart
The exchange rate briefly fell into the 139 yen range. However, it seems to have found support around the 140 yen level.
Today, April 24th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet with Japan’s Finance Minister Kato, and currency issues are reportedly on the agenda.
If exchange rates are not addressed during this meeting, the dip to the 139 yen range may mark the end of this round of yen appreciation.
It’s a relief that the currency stopped declining there, as a breakdown below this key support could have triggered a sharp move towards further yen strength.
Looking ahead—assuming the tariff issues settle down—I believe we’ll see a gradual return to structural yen depreciation.
For a deeper understanding of this trend, I highly recommend reading the book by Mr. Karakama, who explains the concept of structural yen depreciation in detail.
